By: Sergio Molina-Palacios
Professor of Earth Physics, Department of Physics – University of Alicante
Disaster Risk Management & Risk Modeling
The same natural event can produce radically different impacts depending on how well a community has prepared for it. The recent earthquake in Panama is a powerful case in point.
On October 9, 2026, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck the region of Pitazola Arriba, Panama. It was a shallow event, occurring at a depth of just 12 km. Remarkably, no human lives were lost, though significant structural damage occurred—primarily concentrated in the central provinces of Veraguas, Herrera, Coclé, and Los Santos, where over 420 homes and an equal number of schools suffered major damage.
This outcome stands in stark contrast to other recent seismic disasters in the region:
- Venezuela (June 24, 2026): A seismic doublet (two earthquakes of magnitude 7.2 and 7.5) at shallow depths resulted in at least 7,000 fatalities.
- Colombia (August 10, 2026): A magnitude 7.4 earthquake at a deep depth of 110 km claimed at least 331 lives and destroyed more than 33,275 homes.
All three events released immense amounts of energy within similar magnitude ranges. Two were shallow (Venezuela and Panama) and one deep (Colombia), yet the resulting impact on urban centers varied drastically. How is this possible? And more importantly, how can municipalities become truly resilient to natural disasters?
Three Key Pillars of Modern Earthquake Science
Current research aimed at mitigating earthquake impacts focuses on three primary fronts:
- Early Forecasting: International research teams, including experts from the University of Alicante, are testing methodologies based on "precursors"—measurable physical parameters such as shifts in seismic activity, ground deformation, and gas emissions. These indicators could make it possible to establish weekly, biweekly, or monthly forecasts estimating the probability of exceeding specific magnitude thresholds or ground motion levels, enabling local authorities to trigger pre-emergency protocols.
- Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS): Implemented in countries with high-density seismic sensor networks, these systems rapidly determine an earthquake's magnitude and location to broadcast radio signals to communities in the path of oncoming seismic waves. Because seismic waves travel much slower than light, warnings can be delivered between 10 to 60 seconds in advance.
- Rapid Shake Mapping & Impact Modeling: High-density acceleration sensors, combined with building and population vulnerability mapping, enable real-time impact assessments to be delivered directly to emergency responders and decision-makers immediately after an event. Furthermore, seismic impact modeling software—such as SELENA, developed by the University of Alicante—allows experts to simulate earthquakes before they happen, predict structural damage patterns, and draft highly effective emergency response plans.
Building a Culture of Prevention
Panama’s success is no accident; it is the result of decades of regulatory evolution. The country enacted its first seismic design code in 1976, revised it in 1985, and continuously updated it in 1994, 2004, 2014, and most recently in 2021. This deep-rooted seismic culture ensured that the vast majority of modern structures withstood the heavy tremors. Damage was largely confined to older, vulnerable buildings, preventing loss of life.
Simultaneously, international initiatives like DIGIHAZ are fostering digital innovation to combat natural hazards. By promoting advanced digital tools and training, DIGIHAZ strengthens earthquake resilience while building strong collaborative networks among researchers across Malaysia, the Philippines, Greece, and Spain.
There are no natural disasters—only natural events that turn into disasters when we fail to prepare.
Projects like DIGIHAZ provide the tools, knowledge, and international cooperation required to ensure we are ready when the next event strikes.
Links:
https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/191-panama/EQ
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000u18k/executive